The unfortunate bottom line is there is pretty well no way to establish mileage for certain unless you have mountains of old MOTs and paperwork. And its even harder, if not impossible with imported models. Hpi isn't accurate unless the mileage has been recorded with them very regularly.
The way I come to a conclusion about mileage is simply to have a good look at the car: wear on seats, steering wheel and gearknob are the obvious ones but also the condition of suspension components, engine bay etc. Even then its easy to get it wrong.
However, I always tell my customers to buy an MX5 based on condition rather than mileage. Here's a quick non MX5 example:
my wife has a BMW 745, '02 plate, nicely maintained but has covered 115000 miles; she cruises up and down the motorway, never goes over 80 mph, never brakes hard, never corners hard and covers probably 30000 miles a year like that. The car is immaculate in every way. My mother in law on the other hand has a low mileage Jaguar S-Type, only travels 1 mile to the shops and back and the car doesn't even get warm and she thinks that as it covers so few miles, it doesn't need servicing. I just can't believe that a car treated like that would be a better buy then our BMW.
Condition is everything and mileage is only one part of the story. Who cares what the mileage is if the car has been well looked after and maintained?